Sunday, October 18, 2009

Election Commission Drops Karzai to 47%

In a surprising move, the Independent Election Commission released numbers suggesting that Karzai's vote total, after votes for fraud were removed, had dropped to 47%, short of the number required to avoid a run-off with his main challenger, Abdullah Abduallah. A run-off would be extremely complicated, as it would have to take place before snowfall renders transportation nearly impossible in rural parts of the country. Furthermore, fear of violence and disillusionment over voter fraud are just as likely to plague the run-off as the original, and ultimately, Karzai would quite likely defeat Abdullah even without fraud.

Since postponing the run-off till the spring would create a disastrous power vacuum, and not having one at all would be a huge propoganda victory for the Taliban, people are scratching their heads about what to do, and momentum seems to be building for a coalition government. Abdullah has said he would withdraw his candidacy if Karzai would add some of his allies to the government cabinet, a move that the Obama administration suppoorts.

"If you can mediate a settlement which leads to a stronger and more unified government, our sense is that that would be a means of garnering the most significant support by the Afghan people and enhancing the perceived legitimacy of that government," said a senior Obama administration official in Washington.

Unfortunately, Karzai is not only reecting Abdullah's overtures, but he may reject the Election Commission's findings entirely. He has called the U.N committee biased, which is absurd, given recent revelations that if anything, they are biased towards him, and he will probably insist on deferring to the misleadingly titled Independent Election Commission, which is made up of Karzai appointees. This is the same Karzai administration that recently ordered the release of five thousand men held on drug charges operating in the Walid Karzai (Hamid's brother) international narcotics operation. This is the same man our crack team is deciding whether they can successfully partner with in the years to come. Well, I don't need to see anymore- that man is no friend to American interests, no matter how you define them.

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